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ELO

Posted By: Jake Jacobs
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009, at 6:39 p.m.

I was just reading the thread on Neil and David's MET. Thanks guys, it's an idea whose time is long overdue. Two other things nice things I hope someone will produce:

1. An analysis of real world ELO performance. Even better, analyses, as perhaps the sites won't all produce similar statistics. Back in 1995-1996 when writing Fish I felt that the online rankings didn't match the tables' predictions. As an example, yesterday I looked up 5-away, 5-away with a 200-point rating difference. The stronger player should win 61.9%. In 1995 I was still playing online, and could put faces to ratings and at those odds I would have backed the underdog every time. By now there must be tens of thousands of 5-point matches (or equivalent after starting from further out) between players with a 200-point rating difference: did the stronger player win 61.9%?

And does it matter if the difference is, say, 2000-1800 as compared with 1700-1500?

2. A table correlating Snowie ratings with ELO, or the difference in Snowie ratings with the difference in ELO.

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