BGonline.org Forums

Tough 11 vs Keene

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 21 December 2009, at 1:47 a.m.

In Response To: Tough 11 vs Keene (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Nack: ...staying back on the 24pt [transforms] Black's outfield anchor into two more blots if Opp enters with 51.

Matt: Good catch. I didn't see this. Though from Neil's RO it looks like keeping the 24pt is the way to go anyway.

Nack: Agreed. After seeing his rollout, we can be convinced that slotting the 4pt is right even if the 51 factor didn't exist.

To put the 51 roll into perspective, I have punched up some Snowie evals. If you slot the 4pt and opp rolls 51, you redouble (take) with an EMG of .641 or MWC of 32.17%, whereas if you make the 23pt and Opp rolls 51 your EMG is .329 or MWC is 28.61%. This is a difference of .312 and 3.56% but it occurs only 1/18 of the time, coming to .0173 EMG or .198% MWC. This is a huge effect for one roll in such a position but it is still less than 30% of the .064 margin by which slotting the 4pt beat making the 23pt in Neil's rollout.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Tough 11 vs Keene
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 12:17 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 12:25 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 12:49 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 1:11 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 1:19 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 3:10 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Keene -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 4:12 a.m.
  • Tough 11 vs Keene
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 12:31 p.m.
    • Tough 11 vs Keene
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 8:26 p.m.
      • Tough 11 vs Keene
        Nack Ballard -- Monday, 21 December 2009, at 1:47 a.m.
  • 4 ply RO and OTB
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 20 December 2009, at 6:56 p.m.