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BGonline.org Forums
$ Cube Action?
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: $ Cube Action? (Petter Bengtsson)
Date: Monday, 21 December 2009, at 2:53 a.m.
Nack: "If White covers with a nine (4 numbers), she doesn't even lose her market..."
Petter: I'm quite sure you should have counted 54 as a running roll and not as a covering roll...
Nack: Sharp of you to notice the option, and I appreciate your feedback, but actually the play of 54 depends on where the cube is. According to Snowie eval (I just checked), if White has redoubled, he should run with 54 (by .112), but if White has NOT redoubled, he should cover with 54 (by .149), as I implied.
In the paragraph you're quoting me, I was breaking down the situations when White does NOT redouble (this loses her market, that doesn't lose her market, etc.) Granted, a complete analysis would need to include how all the rolls are played in both cube positions and create and account for more subcategories as well, but that would require more energy than I wanted to give the explanation (and probably more than most readers would want).
If I had been pointedly addressing the redoubled scenarios, a misplayed 54 would still short-change the redouble by only .112 / 18 = .006 -- it would have little effect on the big picture of the cube decision -- though at least then I could admit to a transgression :)
Nack
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