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ZEUS says...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 21 December 2009, at 5:33 p.m.

In Response To: Another NFL Coaching Idiot (Bill Riles)

First off, this isn't the typical NFL braindead error. Tomlin was trying something unusual, not simply what every coach in the last 80 years has done. By contrast, Buffalo trailed by 7 with just over 3 minutes (and one TO) remaining. They kicked onside (from an onside kick formation) and recovered, but... one of their players was offside (over the line of scrimmage prior to kick) so they had to rekick. Apparently they then decided they had 0% chance to cover the onside kick (well, that's what the stats showed -- 0/1) so they kicked away! NE picked up one first down and that was the ballgame.

Assuming equal, generic NFL teams and a 23% recovery rate of NON-surprise onside kicks, Tomlin's decision cost 4% GWC. HOWEVER, according to a study done a few years ago (go to http://footballoutsiders.com and search "surprise onside kicks"), 61% of surprise onside kicks were recovered by the kicking team. In that case Tomlin's decision was correct by 3% GWC. Any questions about the 61% stat (particularly confidence interval) should be directed at the above website, not at me.

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