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Prime Time revisited at score with cube
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 23 December 2009, at 9:19 p.m.
In Response To: Prime Time revisited at score with cube (KenB)
Below is the Snowie rollout for the Prime Time position. (The sixth, seventh and eighth plays, which were also rolled 1296 trials, didn't export: 8/3* (margin of .304), 13/9 12/11 (.323), and 13/9 11/10 (.324).)
I see Ken's XG rollout just arrived as well. Here is a bot rollout summary of 13/9 8/7 versus 11/7 8/7:
Snowie: 13/9 8/7 is better by .092
Gnu: 11/7 8/7 is better by .059 (just 432 trials)
XG: 11/7 8/7 is better by .028That's a serious disagreement. I guess the best play will remain unclear unless someone wants to put in the the work to analyze the cube and/or checker play decisions in the next roll or two to see which bot(s) are mangling the position.
Nack
Snowie4 Professional Edition Version 4.7.1 HTML Export
(Green) vs. (White)Match to 11. Score GreenWhite: 85
11 point Match
Pip: 133 Game 1
11 point match
GreenWhite:
Score 85Pip: 99
# Ply Move Equity 1 R 13/9 8/7 0.275 Live cube rollout: 0.158 95% confidence interval:
 money cubeless eq.: 0.507 ±0.011,
 live cube: 0.158 ±0.016.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
2592 games (equiv. 55698 games),
played 3ply (precise), cube 3ply,
random seed, with race database.2 R 11/7 8/7 0.183 (0.092) Live cube rollout: 0.156 95% confidence interval:
 money cubeless eq.: 0.482 ±0.010,
 live cube: 0.156 ±0.015.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
2592 games (equiv. 68793 games),
played 3ply (precise), cube 3ply,
random seed, with race database.3 R 11/7 10/9 0.134 (0.141) Live cube rollout: 0.054 95% confidence interval:
 money cubeless eq.: 0.555 ±0.016,
 live cube: 0.054 ±0.024.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1296 games (equiv. 25184 games),
played 3ply (precise), cube 3ply,
random seed, with race database.4 R 13/9 10/9 0.016 (0.259) Live cube rollout: 0.043 95% confidence interval:
 money cubeless eq.: 0.497 ±0.016,
 live cube: 0.043 ±0.022.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1296 games (equiv. 27927 games),
played 3ply (precise), cube 3ply,
random seed, with race database.5 R 24/23 13/9 0.024 (0.299) Live cube rollout: 0.051 95% confidence interval:
 money cubeless eq.: 0.555 ±0.014,
 live cube: 0.051 ±0.019.
Rollout settings:
Full rollout,
1296 games (equiv. 35221 games),
played 3ply (precise), cube 3ply,
random seed, with race database.This file has been generated bySnowie Professional Edition Version 4.7.1, a product of SnowieGroup SA
Output date: 12:43:17 PM, 12/23/2009(Export v2.10)

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