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41$-44, data

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 25 December 2009, at 9:00 a.m.

In Response To: 41$-44, data (Leonardo Jerkovic)

What is your preferance Nack? isn't the inner boad point more valuable when we put opponent on the bar?

Yes, that's certainly part of the equation. You're very happy having made the 4pt when your opponent fans with 64 instead of entering one checker or he enters with one instead of two with 54 43 42 41, and you're ecstatic when he fans with 44 -- huge swing.

The other side of the equation is that if he comes in with two checkers with 16 rolls, you'll be disjointed after having made the 4pt (five on the midpoint, blots on the 8pt and 16pt). Assuming White's entering number wasn't a doublet you will hope to attack but most of the time without much success. Meanwhile, you'll have squandered the opportunity to build a smooth balanced position (with three checkers on each of the midpoint and 8pt, two on the 9pt, and better chances to unstack the 6pt, since you haven't thrown two checkers in front of it.

Given the rollout data, I have no reason to believe the plays aren't close, perhaps even a photo, but if I had to guess which way today's bots' rollout bias is (as would be revealed by a rollout in 2025) it is in the direction of overrating the 4pt and underrating the 9pt. Bots are terrific at blitz positions but not always so great at maximizing their positions with primes, recognizing profitable recycling opportunities, etc.

So, at this point I would give a small edge to the D play (24/16* 13/9(2)), which happens to contradict Gnu's and XG 3-ply's rollouts and supports Snowie's (and what little we know of XG 4-ply's rollout so far).

There is an additional practical factor. When I have a hard time deciding between two plays, I avoid the one that hits, or hits two instead of one, or makes an inner point when my opponent is on the bar, and instead I'll play the (supposedly) equity-equivalent alternative. The reason is that my opponent cannot misplay the checkers when he is fanning.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 41$44 for money is in the XG 4 ply oven
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 4:09 a.m.
  • 41$44 for money is in the XG 4 ply oven
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 5:19 a.m.
    • 41$44 for money is in the XG 4 ply oven
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 1:13 p.m.
      • No, I don't make sense
        David Rockwell -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 2:56 p.m.
      • 41$44 for money is in the XG 4 ply oven
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 11:22 p.m.
        • 41$-44, data
          Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 11:58 p.m.
          • 41$-44, data
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 25 December 2009, at 3:33 a.m.
            • 41$-44, data
              Nack Ballard -- Friday, 25 December 2009, at 9:00 a.m.
              • 41$-44, data
                neilkaz -- Friday, 25 December 2009, at 5:11 p.m.
                • 41$-44, data
                  Leonardo Jerkovic -- Friday, 25 December 2009, at 7:18 p.m.
                • 41$-44, data..more will take a couple days
                  neilkaz -- Saturday, 26 December 2009, at 12:20 a.m.
              • 41$-44, data
                Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 26 December 2009, at 5:36 p.m.
                • 41$-44, data
                  Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 26 December 2009, at 5:58 p.m.
                  • 41$-44, data
                    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 6:20 a.m.
                • 41$-44, data
                  Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 6:21 a.m.
          • 41$-44, data
            neilkaz -- Friday, 25 December 2009, at 5:02 a.m.
  • After 5k (5184 games rolled out)
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 24 December 2009, at 9:24 p.m.