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BGonline.org Forums
blue to play 21
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: blue to play 21 (TheProdigy)
Date: Friday, 25 December 2009, at 5:17 p.m.
Stacking five checkers on the 21pt works well for Blue when he can escape next roll but could otherwise lead to quick collapse: it puts too many eggs in one basket.
So, it's 23/22 with the ace. With the deuce, I see no good reason to prefer 7/5 to 8/6, while the latter keeps the stronger prime and more natural spare distribution. So, while 7/5 might be second best, I'll eliminate it as first best in a direct comparison with 8/6.
The banana split with 6/4 is intriguing with the efficient 4 and 2 duplication (else I think it would be pretty wrong). It immediately sets a problem for White whether to hit with a 4 or 2. I think White should hit with all 4s and with only big 2s or 22. If White misplays some of these numbers, that's equity off the top for Blue -- it is easier to play correctly against 8/6.
After 4/2, I would expect a strong White player to get most of her rolls right (especially hitting with the 4s). If she does roll a 4 and Blue hits back on the 17pt or 15pt, Blue's board will be so weak that White may well win the battle for the 17pt anyway. And even if Blue anchors on the 17pt he might soon have to break it, or more likely break one of the deep anchors making him vulnerable to a (single-anchor) semi-blitz. (In other words, such variations are worse for Blue than as it might otherwise appear because he is likely to remain plagued by a weak board.) Still, there is compensation in sometimes saving a timing that could otherwise have been wrecked.
What if White misses (or chooses not to hit)? If Blue rolls a 6 other than 62, or a 5 other than 52 when White can't make her 8pt, Blue will wish he had played 8/6 to retain better forward chances. OTOH, in non-leap variations, Blue's next roll will go smoother as he covers his 6pt and/or 4pt and/or hits loose, and it will be harder for White to get in and out without hitting (helping Blue's now-necessary timing) -- Blue emerges with better chances going either front and back. In other words, putting Humpty Dumpty together again is better than starting with a relatively stiff position.
Overall, I judge that 6/4 is weaker (than 8/6), but I wouldn't hesitate to play it against someone who I believe is likely to go astray in the complications.
To everyone: Happy/Merry Christmas, Channukah, Solstice, New Year (and Festivus to George's family), etc.
Nack
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