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61P-31P+C=4a-1a? Results & ROs

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 25 December 2009, at 7:44 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-31P+C=4a-1a? Results & ROs (Matt Cohn-Geier)

I believe David did all sorts of work and rollout tabulation to come up with the free drop value at -1-2 PC for this table so I'd expect it would NOT be far off the mark and is certainly the best effort to date.

Looking at the XG RO output at -4-1 showing that after taking the trailer won 50.65% of all games with 14.21% G's I had a hard time believing this wasn't a pass. However, the calculator shows that if the leader takes, the trailer wins (36.44% x 48.77%)+ 14.21% = 31.98% which is less than the 32.31% he wins if the leader passes and uses his free drop now.

Looking at the output results vs a normal -2-1 GG situation, the side on roll here is only very slightly better, since at GG the side on roll wins 32.43% of all matches vs the new MET's 32.31% if starting from the starting position w/out doubles.

Note that GNU Supremo gives 32.31% ME for GG, while my tabulated XG RO for each of the 30 opening roll (GG and GS) resulted in 32.32% so this MET certainly is looking accurate in that respect.

Nice work MCG...as I felt this decision was a toss up, but it seems a take and save FD for next game.

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