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64S-21X-11L-52S-41: now U beats B

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 26 December 2009, at 11:35 p.m.

In Response To: Fifth roll 41 (Timothy Chow)

64S-63X-11L-53@-41150


2O ' ' ' '5X1X4X ' ' '4O

' ' '2X2O3O '4O ' ' '3X

B (Both, 24/20 8/7) is best160

Position ID: 4OvBAQaw8+ABMA Match ID: cInwAAAAAAAA

Is there a variation of this position [shown above] in which 24/20 24/23 is better than 24/20 8/7?

If you alter the second roll (63) to 31 (as shown below), White has one fewer spare on her 8pt and is ahead 5 fewer pips in the race. There, Blue's U (Up, 24/20 24/23) versus B (Both, 24/20 8/7) is a close decision.

If you alter the second roll to 21 and White anchors with a 2 instead of a 3, the position in the second diagram below differs (from the first below) by only 2 pips, but it is more expensive for Blue to get hit on his 7pt (White is breaking a less advanced anchor) and 3s are no longer duped. In that case, I'm pretty sure U is best.

[Note: In the sequence leading to the original position (above), Blue's L (Lift) play with 11 is tied with e (each, Bar/23 6/5(2)). In the sequences leading to the two positions below, L is a mistake of .05 and .04, respectively.]

Nack

64S-31X-11L-53@-41155


2O ' ' ' '5X1X3X ' ' '4O

' ' '2X2O3O '4O ' ' '4X

U and B are close choices160

Position ID: 4OvgAQaw8+ABMA Match ID: cInwAAAAAAAA

64S-21X-11L-52@-41157


2O ' ' ' '5X1X3X ' ' '4O

' '2X '2O3O '4O ' ' '4X

U (Up, 24/20 24/23) is best160

Position ID: 4OvgAQyw8+ABMA Match ID: cInwAAAAAAAA

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