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15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43 (Timothy Chow)

This is an example of why (at least in the early game) I trust a 1k rollout more than a short full rollout -- one with fewer than 5k trials.

As I mentioned in my post ten days ago, Paul's truncated rollout of 41S-65R-43 (done years ago) shows making the 5pt with a .004 edge. Your 15k rollout shows the margin to be .002.

The 1k full rollout you posted on 12/16 showed a margin of .011 and it was lucky to be that close. This is just a little reminder to people that early game live cube rollouts have hhhhighhhh variance.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:23 a.m.
  • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:34 a.m.
  • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
    Stick -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:41 a.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 1:03 a.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:08 a.m.
  • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 1:38 a.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:02 a.m.
      • there are lies,
        garyo -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 4:00 a.m.
        • rollouts make an assumption
          garyo -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 3:09 a.m.
      • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:52 p.m.
        • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 6:47 p.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 7:12 p.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 7:25 p.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 2:14 p.m.
            • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
              Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 7:33 p.m.
              • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
                Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 8:45 a.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:57 a.m.
        • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
          Tom Keith -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 6:57 p.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 12:58 a.m.
    • 41S-65R-43
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:06 a.m.
      • 41S-65R-43
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:53 a.m.
        • 41S-65R-43
          Stick -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 3:30 a.m.