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15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:02 a.m.

In Response To: 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43 (Nack Ballard)

Nack Ballard wrote:

(at least in the early game) I trust a 1k [truncated] rollout more than a short full rollout -- one with fewer than 5k trials.

I've argued—at least on rec.games.backgammon, if not here—that truncated rollouts might sometimes be preferable to full rollouts, especially given a fixed amount of computation time. I don't think I convinced anybody, but it's good to see someone else coming independently to a similar conclusion.

In statistician-speak, the point is that unbiasedness is not to be idolized. There's an old and very nerdy poem by Maurice Kendall called Hiawatha Designs an Experiment that makes this point. But you might have to be both a fan of Longfellow's original poem and have gotten into heated arguments about biased estimators to get the full enjoyment out of Kendall's brilliant piece.

Messages In This Thread

• 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:23 a.m.
  • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:34 a.m.
  • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
    Stick -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 12:41 a.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 1:03 a.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:08 a.m.
  • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 1:38 a.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:02 a.m.
      • there are lies,
        garyo -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 4:00 a.m.
        • rollouts make an assumption
          garyo -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 3:09 a.m.
      • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 2:52 p.m.
        • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 6:47 p.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 7:12 p.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 7:25 p.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 2:14 p.m.
            • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
              Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 December 2009, at 7:33 p.m.
              • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
                Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 8:45 a.m.
          • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:57 a.m.
        • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
          Tom Keith -- Sunday, 27 December 2009, at 6:57 p.m.
    • 15552-game rollout of 41Z-65R-43
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 12:58 a.m.
    • 41S-65R-43
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:06 a.m.
      • 41S-65R-43
        Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 1:53 a.m.
        • 41S-65R-43
          Stick -- Wednesday, 16 June 2010, at 3:30 a.m.