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Simple early game 22 - Rollout and OTB

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: Simple early game 22 (Rich Munitz)

OTB, like Neil, I saw very little defensive urgency here, was well behind in the race and felt that the best approach was to contain the opponent's anchor, maximize contact, hope to hit a shot and be ready with an offensive position. The 11 point seemed to have long term value. For reasons outlined by many, this was the wrong idea. Making the 20 point still maximizes contact via the third checker back on the 24 point, but it also locks up the best possible holding game point which will go a long way to negating the racing deficit in terms of winning chances. The 20 point simply throws cold water on the opponent's offensive development.

XG picked the 20 point as best from the start, and with every increasing level of evaluation and then the rollouts, it only got stronger and more clear. The long term value of the 20 point clearly emerged, and the idea of make it while you can because it may be difficult to do later was reinforced.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
7 point match
pip: 175
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-----bEAB--AdC-a-c-e----C-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:7:10
to play 22

1.Rollout124/20(2)eq: -0.282
Player:
Opponent:
43.06% (G:9.24% B:0.47%)
56.94% (G:13.78% B:0.82%)
Conf: ± 0.028 (-0.310...-0.254)
Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes 45 seconds
2.Rollout224/22(2) 6/4(2)eq: -0.344 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
42.41% (G:8.63% B:0.57%)
57.59% (G:14.73% B:0.86%)
Conf: ± 0.027 (-0.371...-0.317)
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout324/22 13/11 6/4(2)eq: -0.350 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
43.14% (G:8.81% B:0.55%)
56.86% (G:17.18% B:1.26%)
Conf: ± 0.027 (-0.377...-0.323)
Duration: 43 minutes 24 seconds
1 854 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 853 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

3 661 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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