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OT: Zeus: Let them score?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 29 December 2009, at 5:22 p.m.

In Response To: OT: Zeus: Let them score? (Gregg Cattanach)

If the question is: PHI 1st and 10 from DEN 87, 59 seconds on the clock, tie score, 2 TO's each vs. DEN trailing by 7 and receiving a Kickoff with 55 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts each it appears as though the latter is better by a couple % GWC assuming equal, generic NFL teams. I think that is DEN's best scenario since the longer they wait to surrender the TD, the less time they will have to come back and score.

And as Joe indicates, PHI could thwart this by intentionally stopping before entering the endzone.

BTW, one must be careful not to give a short field goal the same probability of success as an extrapoint. The latter is from the center of the field (or at least that is where the ball is snapped from). Even considering that the angle only reduces the target by a small amount (~cosine of angle), there seems to be additional (mental/psychological?) problems for kickers when they line up at an angle. It's worse in college, particularly because the hashmarks (extreme locations where the ball can be snapped from) are considerably further from the centerline in NCAA compared to NFL.

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