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2a 2a Cube Action - Rollout

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 12:11 p.m.

In Response To: 2a 2a Cube Action (Ian Shaw)

I use 32% as the match equty for 2a1aC. Gnubg vacillated between Take on even plies and Pass on odd plies, but after a rollout it looks like my decision to drop was an error. 34.5% is right at the top of my estimation window.

Looking at the Jacobs-Trice tables, the difference for 100 Elo is 33.5 - 31 = 2.5% MWC at 2a1aC. Adding this difference to the baseline I use would make my pass marginally correct. Did I have this advantage? I've no idea, but maybe.

The score (after 0 games) is: Ian 0, Joe 0 (match to 2 points)

Move number 3: Joe on roll, cube decision?

Ian161


 ' ' ' '2O5X2X3X1X ' '3O

 ' ' '4X '5O2O3O ' ' ' '

Joe147

Position ID: 4NsFgAfg28EBAw Match ID: cAlAAAAAAAAA

• Joe doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless MWC 57.86%(Money: +0.466)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take 65.51%
2.Double, pass 68.15% 2.64%
3.No double 64.76% -0.75%
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.6700.1890.017-0.3300.0730.006 57.86% 64.76%
Standard error0.0020.0050.003-0.0020.0040.002 0.07% 0.15%
Player Ian owns 2-cube0.6550.2590.036-0.3450.0880.008 65.51% 65.51%
Standard error0.0030.0080.004-0.0030.0050.002 0.26% 0.26%
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840585011 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 1-ply cubeful prune

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