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XG and GNU rollouts

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 2:45 p.m.

In Response To: Is this obvious? (Petter Bengtsson)

I couldn't see much difference between 3/2 and 2/1 but the rollouts have 3/2 as the clear winner. To understand why, see Nack's insightful reply below.

	is XG Roller score: 2 pip: 128 7 point match pip: 103 score: 0 is petter
XGID=-BBB-bB-B-BabA-B-b-bb-bb--:0:0:1:51:0:2:0:7:10
to play 51

1.	Rollout1	13/8 3/2	eq: +0,352
	Player: Opponent: 59,30% (G:4,93% B:0,14%) 40,70% (G:7,25% B:0,26%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,346...+0,358) Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes 21 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 2/1	eq: +0,330 (-0,022)
	Player: Opponent: 58,75% (G:5,00% B:0,15%) 41,25% (G:7,91% B:0,30%) Conf: ± 0,006 (+0,324...+0,336) Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes 04 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/7	eq: +0,249 (-0,103)
	Player: Opponent: 56,25% (G:9,01% B:0,30%) 43,75% (G:9,95% B:0,43%) Conf: ± 0,015 (+0,234...+0,264) Duration: 35 minutes 44 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84745752 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 84745752 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.11, MET: GnuBG 11 point

The score is: gnubg 2, petter 0 (match to 7 points)

gnubg	128
petter	103
Position ID: NpvBAgPbmBkZAA Match ID: cInmACAAAAAA

Cube decision
4-ply cubeless equity		+0,2947	(Money: +0,2882)
	0,6308 0,1077 0,0015 - 0,3692 0,0806 0,0021
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0,5438
2.	Double, pass	+1,0000	+0,4562
3.	Double, take	+0,4971	-0,0467
Proper cube action:		No double, take (9,3%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/8 3/2	+0,3516
			0,5897 0,0516 0,0012 - 0,4103 0,0742 0,0020 +0,1609 +0,3516 0,0008 0,0008 0,0001 - 0,0008 0,0010 0,0004 0,0020 0,0041
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840756002 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	13/8 2/1	+0,3244 ( -0,0273)
			0,5834 0,0531 0,0011 - 0,4166 0,0833 0,0020 +0,1410 +0,3244 0,0008 0,0008 0,0001 - 0,0008 0,0011 0,0002 0,0021 0,0039
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840756002 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Is this obvious?
  Petter Bengtsson -- Wednesday, 30 December 2009, at 10:37 a.m.
  • Is this obvious?
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 30 December 2009, at 11:47 a.m.
  • Is this obvious?
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 30 December 2009, at 3:32 p.m.
  • Is this obvious?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 30 December 2009, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Is this obvious?
    MandM1951 -- Wednesday, 30 December 2009, at 6:25 p.m.
  • Is this obvious?
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 2:02 a.m.
    • Is this obvious?
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 3:47 p.m.
      • Is this obvious?
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 7:57 p.m.
  • XG and GNU rollouts
    Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 2:45 p.m.