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Learning the easy way

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 1 January 2010, at 2:29 p.m.

In Response To: Learning the easy way (Chuck Bower)

13/7 would be a good idea if White's blot were already on the bar, hoping to jar a second checker loose when she rolls 43 or 52. But with White already in, it can't be right for Blue to leave a direct shot. Setting White back with 7/6*/1 gains more than burying a checker costs: that may be true even if gammons aren't counted, and the gammon difference must be huge with a 16- vs 2-number shot. So, I'll eliminate 13/7 in direct comparison with hit-and-lift.

Assuming 7/6*, the best winning chance must be to leave the blot there, and going all out to cover with 17/12 is probably better than 21/15 (either one of which is hit with 44, btw).

However, playing to win has to be balanced with not getting gammoned. A pretty good rule of thumb I use in such positions is to lift when Opp's board is better than my own, as is the case here. So, 7/6*/1. I haven't given up on winning yet -- I just want to curtail immediate disaster.

If White didn't own her 6pt, the boards would be equal. In that case I would hit and stay (with 17/12 7/6*) rather than hit and lift.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Learning the easy way
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 10:44 p.m.
  • Learning the easy way
    Andreas -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 10:52 p.m.
    • Nactation assumptions
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 1 January 2010, at 3:31 p.m.
      • Nactation assumptions
        Stick -- Friday, 1 January 2010, at 3:46 p.m.
  • Learning the easy way
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 11:06 p.m.
  • Learning the easy way
    Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 11:15 p.m.
  • Learning the easy way
    Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 31 December 2009, at 11:21 p.m.
  • Learning the easy way
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 1 January 2010, at 2:29 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 2 January 2010, at 2:00 a.m.