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BGonline.org Forums
Tokyo Permabox #6 - 62
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: Tokyo Permabox #6 - 62 (Stick)
Date: Monday, 4 January 2010, at 9:27 p.m.
Out of curiosity, is the nine-roll sequence below (with White’s rolls underlined) basically what happened? (Grant me the many thematically similar 18pt-starting and -hitting alternatives with White's three middle rolls changed, and Black might have anchored with 51 instead of 42.)
51$-42S-62R-21H-53H-42@-51@-43H-62
(43H was a poor move, but it’s hard to see what was played last turn unless it was a longer sequence.)
On to the problem at hand. White enters with the 2 and has a 6 to play. D (Down, 13/7) leaves 65 55 53 62 32 51 that either hit and cover or hit twice (I neglect 21 because if K is right it’s not by much), and the rest I don’t much care about. The other move, H (Hit, 8/2*) leaves 62 52 32 21 instead.
The count is 11 numbers vs 8. The 62 32 hit-and-covers (after White plays 8/7) break the anchor, but against that the 52 hit-and-cover (after White hits on the 2pt) is relatively weak, so I'll cancel those. (Btw, I automatically factor Black’s immediate 66 fan subconsciously – it’s so typically part of such a comparison.) Probably close, but I'll say that 11-to-8 count advantage isn't big enough to justify hitting deep and I’ll go with D.
The 7pt loses much of its value after White makes an advanced anchor (which is related to the fact that Black won’t break the anchor to hit with 52 42 and reluctantly if that with 21), but it’s still a worthwhile point to try to make.
Alternate position (though maybe this is too obvious): slide the 8pt stack back to the 9pt and inch up White’s back blot, and with the same roll (62) I gladly hit on the 3pt.
Nack
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