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SNOWIE ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Ray Kershaw
Date: Thursday, 7 January 2010, at 11:04 a.m.

In Response To: SNOWIE ROLLOUTS (Daniel Murphy)

Thanks to Matt, Timothy and Daniel for this learned discussion. Can I see if I now understand the big picture - that is what is done as opposed to how it is done ?

In a Snowie rollout (as opposed to evaluation):

1. The six cubeless probabilities: (a) are derived from the rollout so are not necessarily identical to evaluation probabilities (b) assume the cube is on 1 but is not used (c) assume no Jacoby Rule (d) are identical whether it is a money game or a match rollout, since checker play is not a function of match score (e) are after the application of variance reduction.

2. The equity reported in a cubeful Snowie rollout is a function of: (a) the six cubeless probabilities (b) Janowski formulae applied to these six cubeless probabilities and in particular taking account of the way that the value of gammons and backgammons varies with match score.

3. The live cube rollout equity: (a) is not a function of the six cubeless probabilities (b) is a function of Snowie's assessment of optimum cube actions on each roll; these optimum cube actions do take account of the way that the value of gammons and backgammons varies with match score (c) does not adjust checker play according to match score.

This is my understanding of what in principle is being done. Whether it could be done better is the subject of other discussion on this forum.

Sorry if I have still not got this right.

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