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OLM Fr 01/08/10

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 9 January 2010, at 3:42 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 01/08/10 (Jason Lee)

Previously I was pretty sure we'd have a take, and I think I said I would take. Now that I look at this in the light of the score (4-away all) I'm getting a different feeling.

First off I estimate our gammon loss fraction. One way I attack these early game situations is to ask "are we more likely or less likely to get gammoned now that we were at the beginning of the game?" Given opp's homeside improvement AND our fresh direct shot, it seems as though the answer is 'worse'. Since the beginning of the game we have a gammon loss fraction near 25%, I'll call this 33%. (Note I like to stay with easy fractions or round numbers.)

Next I go through the Match Equity Calculation pro-rating gammon losses (but ignoring gammon wins) and ignoring recube vig. Here I find that under those circumstances (and using rounded G11 MEq's) that we need to win 45% of the time to take.

Now I adjust for cube ownership, which brings this down considerably, but still getting 35% cgwc to be the takepoint.

The last step is to put this into $-game perspective. At this point I need to estimate our gammon win fraction, here I used 25%. Now I calculate the equivalent $_game equity (usual W + G + B - w - g - b) and come up with an equity of -0.42 from our perspective. That is typically near the borderline for an initial $-game double.

Now I simply ask the question: if this were a $-game, does White have a borderline initial double or worse? I think the answer is "no, this is BETTER than a borderline initial double at $." I figure this is high 0.4's, maybe a bit better than that.

Conclusion: Pass.

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