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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 9 January 2010, at 5:40 p.m.

In Response To: Money game: Blue to play 2-2 (Timothy Chow)

OTB, I felt it was important to oppose the midpoint, and I picked 20/18(2) for my first two 2's. I wasn't sure whether the last two 2's should be 13/11(2) or 6/2. I played 6/2, and while I was prepared to be told it was wrong, I was surprised just how wrong GNU thought it was. As Nack, Chuck, and Neil have explained, 6/2 is a waste and it would be right only if the 13-point were a lot better than the 11-point. But—and this is what I failed to appreciate—it's the other way around. OTB I thought that it was more balanced to have two points in direct-shot range of the opponent's midpoint and two points in direct-shot range of the opponent's anchor. But White is not leaving a blot on either point next turn, so there is a good chance that I will be clearing my 8-point next turn, and then I will want to have two separate guns trained on my 5-point. The top three plays all start with 13/11(2), and 20/18(2) 6/2 isn't even close.

gnubg	121
tchow	126
Position ID: tZyDAQNyPoMBAw Match ID: cAkJAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	20/18(2) 13/11(2)	+0.074
			0.520 0.069 0.002 - 0.480 0.079 0.002 +0.030 +0.074 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840333426 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/9(2)	+0.016 ( -0.058)
			0.505 0.063 0.002 - 0.495 0.061 0.002 +0.012 +0.016 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840333426 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/11(2) 6/2	-0.013 ( -0.088)
			0.500 0.068 0.002 - 0.500 0.083 0.002 -0.013 -0.013 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840333426 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	20/18(2) 6/2	-0.070 ( -0.144)
			0.480 0.079 0.003 - 0.520 0.094 0.002 -0.054 -0.070 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840333426 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Money game: Blue to play 2-2
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 8 January 2010, at 5:30 a.m.
  • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 8 January 2010, at 3:26 p.m.
    • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 8 January 2010, at 4:19 p.m.
      • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 9 January 2010, at 8:11 a.m.
  • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 8 January 2010, at 5:09 p.m.
  • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
    neilkaz -- Friday, 8 January 2010, at 5:27 p.m.
    • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 8 January 2010, at 10:09 p.m.
      • Money game: Blue to play 2-2
        neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 January 2010, at 1:58 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 9 January 2010, at 5:40 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Ian Shaw -- Saturday, 9 January 2010, at 11:09 p.m.