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"Distribution is pivotal"?

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 10 January 2010, at 11:49 p.m.

In Response To: "Distribution is pivotal"? (Timothy Chow)

I would like to understand what you are saying here better. It makes sense to me that distribution is important strategically. But ostensibly, the given position looks quite tactical. That is, Blue is quite concerned about not getting hit, since White's board is so strong. Shouldn't the number of shots left on this roll and the next roll be the dominant factor here?

It may help to think of this as a miniature version of "pay now or later." In the positions of that category to which you are accustomed, paying now generally means leaving at least an extra 11 shots, could be 13 or 14 or more. That doesn't guarantee you won't leave a shot later, but it's much easier to bring home (e.g., it might avoid leaving a shot twice later and/or more hitting numbers), and on balance it is better to pay now.

In the position you posted, leaving an extra 6 shots is a partial pay-now situation, relatively speaking. You should be willing to do this so that your position is safer to bring home when you are missed, and in the previous post I gave some reasons why 13/10 helps with that, and the number of shots on the next and subsequent rolls is the manifestation. Even the 6 shots count less than they do in a lot of pay-now-or-later situations because Blue may still survive a hit.

If you alter the distribution by putting a midpoint checker on the 8pt, it is less necessary to unload the midpoint to increase flexibility, and it might or might not be worth leaving 6 extra shots to gain the superior position when missed.

If you alter the distribution by putting a midpoint checker on the 6pt, it is not only less necessary to unload the midpoint, but it is also more reasonable to unload the 6pt (for one thing, you can retain a spare with the next 6/3). That is why in that variant I'm guessing 6/3 is better. 13/10 still reaches a better position when missed, but the difference is smaller and the 6 extra shots sway me to 6/3 (i.e., in the five-on-6pt position).

Nack

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