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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 12:40 p.m.

In Response To: Not surprised I got this one wrong - XGR+ EVAL & variations (Rich Munitz)

I'm willing to accept XGR+ for your posted position because it felt like a next to me. Once you take away the blot in the opponent's inner board I don't think I would have nexted any of the positions and am not willing to accept XGR+ as the final answer. If I wanted only XGR+ analysis I wouldn't have got a lightning fast bot to do rollouts for me to begin with.

With comparisons like this when I'm trying to get concepts stuck in my head or reference positions I also prefer to make them all money positions and get rid of the score card.

No inner board blot and a two point board with the second point being rather deep:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbc-cB--b--:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
to play 34

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.481
Player:
Opponent:
62.54% (G:13.49% B:0.53%)
37.46% (G:8.20% B:0.37%)
Conf: ± 0.025 (+0.456...+0.506)
Duration: 31 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.440 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
60.98% (G:14.39% B:0.57%)
39.02% (G:6.94% B:0.29%)
Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.420...+0.460)
Duration: 25 minutes 48 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


No inner board blot and a two point board with the second point being not as deep:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbc-cB-b---:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.453
Player:
Opponent:
60.81% (G:14.44% B:0.55%)
39.19% (G:6.52% B:0.28%)
Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.442...+0.464)
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.436 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
61.12% (G:13.31% B:0.52%)
38.88% (G:7.90% B:0.40%)
Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.423...+0.449)
Duration: 1 hour 28 minutes 23 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


Three point board (632):





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbb-bB-bb--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.437
Player:
Opponent:
60.97% (G:13.24% B:0.54%)
39.03% (G:7.84% B:0.28%)
Conf: ± 0.019 (+0.418...+0.456)
Duration: 33 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.403 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
61.15% (G:12.08% B:0.49%)
38.85% (G:10.35% B:0.44%)
Conf: ± 0.021 (+0.382...+0.424)
Duration: 37 minutes 45 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


Three point board (621)





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 121
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbb-bB--bb-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.480
Player:
Opponent:
62.89% (G:13.54% B:0.65%)
37.11% (G:12.60% B:0.45%)
Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.457...+0.503)
Duration: 38 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.437 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
61.70% (G:13.89% B:0.59%)
38.30% (G:9.00% B:0.23%)
Conf: ± 0.021 (+0.416...+0.458)
Duration: 30 minutes 44 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


Blotted board as in the original but a slightly better point made.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbc-bB-ba--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.591
Player:
Opponent:
64.39% (G:15.33% B:0.64%)
35.61% (G:7.70% B:0.39%)
Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.568...+0.614)
Duration: 33 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.551 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
63.37% (G:15.69% B:0.66%)
36.63% (G:6.86% B:0.30%)
Conf: ± 0.022 (+0.529...+0.573)
Duration: 28 minutes 35 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


Blotted but a better point made and a stronger slot.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbc-bBba---:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.510
Player:
Opponent:
63.10% (G:14.12% B:0.61%)
36.90% (G:7.58% B:0.35%)
Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.494...+0.526)
Duration: 46 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.504 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
62.34% (G:14.59% B:0.56%)
37.66% (G:6.47% B:0.29%)
Conf: ± 0.015 (+0.489...+0.519)
Duration: 40 minutes 00 second
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


Stronger point but weaker point slotted.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC-bbc-bBb-a--:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
to play 34

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.571
Player:
Opponent:
64.02% (G:14.81% B:0.64%)
35.98% (G:7.52% B:0.38%)
Conf: ± 0.017 (+0.554...+0.588)
Duration: 47 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.544 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
63.06% (G:15.76% B:0.61%)
36.94% (G:6.67% B:0.31%)
Conf: ± 0.016 (+0.528...+0.560)
Duration: 39 minutes 32 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply


And finally, outside prime busted but 632 inner board structure:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--a--BCBB--AbC--cb-cB-bb--:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.494
Player:
Opponent:
63.59% (G:11.05% B:0.51%)
36.41% (G:10.80% B:0.48%)
Conf: ± 0.020 (+0.474...+0.514)
Duration: 38 minutes 51 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.436 (-0.058)
Player:
Opponent:
61.79% (G:12.01% B:0.49%)
38.21% (G:8.43% B:0.29%)
Conf: ± 0.019 (+0.417...+0.455)
Duration: 31 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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