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21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far (neilkaz)

Neil wrote:

XG confidence intervals are 95% confidence intervals so there's really only a very small statistical chance that N is best.

That is true, but note that 95% confidence means, roughly speaking, that you'll be wrong 1 out of 20 times. I presume you're studying more than 20 opening decisions. If you're going to be taking the results of your computations as "ground truth" for the next 5 years, you may want to make sure that your opening book has fewer than 1 mistake out of every 20 decisions, especially when the mistake is easily fixable by doing a longer computation.

Messages In This Thread

• 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
  neilkaz -- Saturday, 16 January 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
  • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 3:03 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply after 7k
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 3:42 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:00 p.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:29 p.m.
        • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
          Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:41 p.m.
          • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:00 p.m.
          • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far..update and CI etc
            neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:25 p.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
        Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:29 p.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 2:50 a.m.
  • 21$-62 At Match Scores
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:17 a.m.
    • 21$-62 At Match Scores
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:23 a.m.
      • 21$-62 At Match Scores
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 3:42 a.m.
    • 21$-62 At Match Scores
      David Rockwell -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:35 a.m.
      • 21$-62 At Match Scores
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
        • 21$-62 At Match Scores
          David Rockwell -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:05 p.m.
          • 21$-62 At Match Scores
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 1:31 a.m.
  • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
    aoleg1 -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 7:53 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 8:46 a.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
        Stick -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 9:00 a.m.
      • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:49 p.m.
        • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
          Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 12:59 a.m.
          • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far BLACKS REPLIES 4ply
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 19 January 2010, at 2:24 a.m.
    • 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:48 p.m.
    • incorrect responses
      David Rockwell -- Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 5:05 p.m.