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21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far
Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 17 January 2010, at 4:41 p.m.
In Response To: 21$ 62 XG 4 ply RO so far (neilkaz)
Neil wrote:
XG confidence intervals are 95% confidence intervals so there's really only a very small statistical chance that N is best.
That is true, but note that 95% confidence means, roughly speaking, that you'll be wrong 1 out of 20 times. I presume you're studying more than 20 opening decisions. If you're going to be taking the results of your computations as "ground truth" for the next 5 years, you may want to make sure that your opening book has fewer than 1 mistake out of every 20 decisions, especially when the mistake is easily fixable by doing a longer computation.

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