Kit to play 42
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Kit to play 42 (Stick)
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
In Response To: Kit to play 42 (Stick)
ATS, the leader doesn't care about gammons won and gammons for the trailer are somewhat more valuable than for money. The choices with this 42 are to cover and slot the 4-point with 9/5 6/4, make the 4-point and leave the 5-point slotted with 8/4 6/4, or cover and split with 8/4 24/22.
The two make the prime plays look close. Both leave 13 hits with several hit-and-covers (7 after making the 4-point vs. 8 if you slot it). Covering the 5 makes the stronger point but leaves fewer covers for the slot. Also, 2 of the 13 hitters are really duped since White would love to make his bar with a 21. I guess I'd go with the cover and slot play.
Cover and split might even be better. After all, you are up in the race and that usually means you better get your back men moving since your prime rates to be the 1st to crumble. This position could be an exception however since almost everything allows White to cover and hit loose. If you don't hit back, White could easily do it all - cover, get out past your partial prime, and win the game, possibly even a gammon. Another reason not to split despite your small lead in the race is that White's barpoint is open and is likely to remain so for a while. This gives you an escape hatch which will give you some extra timing to hold your prime together.
Which play would be right at DMP? I'd vote for cover and split. Does this play give the oppt too many gammons, thus making it too risky ATS? I don't think so. I'm not really sure which of these plays loses the most g's, so I'd go with 9/5 24/22.
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