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Kit to play 42

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 20 January 2010, at 10:39 p.m.

In Response To: Kit to play 42 (Stick)

Given that votes have been cast for the other two reasonable candidate plays and none yet for the third play 9/5 6/4, that's my pick.

That's not really my reason, of course. As I see it, the problem with splitting is that it gives Yellow extra ways to win. Brown already has good 6s, and 6 is the best escaping number to have in a priming battle.

Slotting improves Brown's position (i.e., it's better than passing on the 2 if that were allowed), whereas I'm less sure that's true about splitting with the 2 into Yellow's reinforced 9pt and 8pt.

The two non-splitting choices are, in essence, slotting plays. On a surface count, 9/5 6/4 leaves more hit-and-cover numbers than 8/4 6/4 but I don't think it really does because Yellow shouldn't even hit with 21 if she rolls it (or at least not by enough to make it countable). So, 9/5 6/4 actually leaves 1 fewer hit-and-cover, not 1 more hit-and-cover.

As for follow-up covers, if Brown isn't hit (otherwise it's not relevant), by my count slotting the 4pt produces 23 covers whereas slotting the 5pt produces 28 numbers -- that 5-number difference is worth noting. But I think it's more than made up for by the combination of (a) Brown's extra blot on the 9pt in the hit variations, and (b) Brown's stronger prime in both the Yellow-hit and the Yellow-no-hit-but-Brown-also-no-cover variations.

In short, I like 9/5 6/4.


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