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Opening 21 at 2 away v 7 away

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Saturday, 23 January 2010, at 7:24 a.m.

Even though I continue to suspect that the variance in XG rollouts is greater than reported, my rollout result here seems pretty clear - just not what I was expecting. I would be grateful if anyone has an explanation why 24/23 13/11 might be better at this score - preferably in plain English without hieroglyphics.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
7 point match
pip: 167
score: 5

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:5:0:0:7:10
to play 21

1.Rollout124/23 13/11eq: -0.201
Player:
Opponent:		 50.01% (G:16.12% B:2.95%)
49.99% (G:13.68% B:0.70%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.206...-0.196)
Duration: 6 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout113/11 6/5eq: -0.215 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.17% (G:16.12% B:3.06%)
49.83% (G:14.22% B:0.89%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.221...-0.209)
Duration: 6 hours 58 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31247
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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