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XG Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 23 January 2010, at 4:47 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout, plus related positions (Timothy Chow)

Those who get a thrill out of being "right" may be disappointed by the rollout, which says that the two plays are TCTC

I get a thrill out of knowing and prefer being correct. I won't settle for a better answer when it's so easy to get and at my fingers so below are a couple of rollouts of the 31. Thanks to my hard work we can see when comparing to your rollouts that I completely wasted my time.

*Note the second roll out is the 31 same position/same seed rolled out 5ply/4ply. This only took 21 minutes to get 1296 trials and I recommend we do this when possible for positions near the end of the game like this one.

Given with the 31 that play A wins basically 3% more games than play B and play A loses only 4% more gammons (exactly twice as many as play B) you'd think play A would be ahead by more wouldn't you? It may just be too early in the day for me to think about this...

Note also that, if you believe the absolute equity numbers, GNU considers 3-1 to be the worst roll of the lot.

Agree of the bunch 31 is clearly the worst.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 21
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-CBCBCA-------------aAbdb-:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
to play 31

1.Rollout121/20* 20/17eq: -0.284
Player:
Opponent:
33.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.71% (G:8.06% B:0.14%)
Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.285...-0.283)
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout121/20* 6/3eq: -0.287 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
30.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.75% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.288...-0.286)
Duration: 57.7 seconds
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply






is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 21
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-CBCBCA-------------aAbdb-:1:1:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
to play 13

1.Rollout121/20* 20/17eq: -0.282
Player:
Opponent:
33.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.69% (G:8.26% B:0.13%)
Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.286...-0.278)
Duration: 14 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout121/20* 6/3eq: -0.283 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
30.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.71% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.287...-0.279)
Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves: 5 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply






is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 21
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 66
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-CBCBCA-------------aAbdb-:1:1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.Rollout121/20* 6/2eq: -0.263
Player:
Opponent:
31.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
68.75% (G:0.42% B:0.01%)
Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.264...-0.262)
Duration: 53.9 seconds
2.Rollout121/20* 20/16eq: -0.263 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
33.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.08% (G:7.52% B:0.14%)
Conf: ± 0.001 (-0.264...-0.262)
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1296
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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