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Explain this voluntary direct please

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 12 February 2010, at 2:41 a.m.

I would have played the safe play leaving no direct shot quickly (for me that is in 11 seconds), and probably thought that someone who didn't just did not see it. But RO says .048 error. When the trap comes is it good to have a third checker back? There may then be more blots to hit and there is a large gammon price. Or is there some wired RO thing happening. I don't get this play.





is XG Roller+

score: 4
pip: 94
5 point match
pip: 121
score: 2

is UBK
XGID=---BbBC-CBB------a-bbbcbaA:1:-1:-1:44:2:4:0:5:10
to play 44

1.Rollout18/4 6/2(2) 5/1eq: -0.786
Player:
Opponent:		 27.89% (G:6.55% B:0.07%)
72.11% (G:17.24% B:1.15%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.800...-0.772)
Duration: 12 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout28/4 6/2 5/1(2)eq: -0.790 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		 27.05% (G:5.89% B:0.07%)
72.95% (G:16.58% B:1.09%)		Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.804...-0.776)
Duration: 10 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout26/2(2) 5/1(2)eq: -0.833 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		 27.39% (G:6.56% B:0.05%)
72.61% (G:19.13% B:1.21%)		Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.848...-0.818)
Duration: 8 minutes 49 seconds
1 805 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: Random
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 804 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: Random
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: eXtremeGammon

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