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Calculating When To Double Or Lose Your Market

Posted By: trichard
Date: Thursday, 25 March 2010, at 8:32 p.m.

I'm inclined to think there's a shortage of commentary on the subject of losing your market. Is it possible to quantify this, or are there so many things that have to be considered it ends up being just a hunch based on experience and a gut feeling?

It seems to me the problem is complicated because there are a number of things that have to be considered in addition to your equity at the time: 1) how many rolls/responses lose your market; 2) how many rolls/responses preserve your market, perhaps with improved equity; 3) how many rolls/responses make you wish you hadn't doubled; 4) what are the chances your opponent will make a mistake and pass now, or next roll take a cube he should pass; 5) match equity considerations.

I confess I don't know how to begin to quantify all this, so I tend to rely on whatever experience I bring to bear, which is a fancy way of saying...gut feeling.

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