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BGonline.org Forums
Poker Skill - Luck Analysis
Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Saturday, 2 June 2007, at 6:20 p.m.
Hi guys. Did you miss me? I have not posted much lately because I am trying to learn to play poker. Many of you are also great poker players and have already helped me. I return to seek more advice. Thus, this is a continuation in Poker Lessons for Stanley. Perhaps, the subject line of my next post will be Poker Lesson # 4 for Stanley.
Man, did I get my ass kicked yesterday (-17 BB per 100 hands). After adjusting my tactics per your suggestions, I was playing about even. I was earning just enough to pay the rake after changing to a tighter pre flop and more aggressive post flop style. One advantage in backgammon is the fantastic software which clearly indicates your luck and skill factor. This information is not presented as obviously with Poker software. However, luck and skill metrics are presented in the below table:
.......................Luck Analysis Table.....................
Item...................1,773 Game Average...........272 Bad Night Average
Won $ WSF......................40.0%.......................29.0%
Won $ WSF / # Hands......10.7%........................6.6%
Won $ at SD.....................44.7%.......................29.0%
Fold to River Bet...............42.7%.......................62.5%
Won $ WSF = Won $'s when saw flop
Won $ WSF / # Hands = Won $ WSF divided by Number of Hands
Won $ at SD = Won $'s at Show Down
I attempt to quantify luck by comparing my 1,773 game-average with yesterday’s 272 Bad Night average. My success percentage was significantly worse in all of the above categories. This means that I was playing worse yesterday or my luck was worse than normal. Obviously 1,773 games is not enough to determine a standard. This is where you can help. A player with a high Won $ WSF obviously has developed fine pre flop decision skills. Winning money at show downs is very important. That is when the pots are normally high. Thus, Won $ at SD metric is a fine indicator of skill.
The purpose of this post is not to whine about my lousy luck last night. Crappy luck is part of gambling. Stay away from gambling if you are not man enough to withstand poor luck. However, I must develop a way to evaluate my skill and to understand my luck.
Do you agree that the above metrics are some of the best indicators of skill? Are there other skill indicators that I am missing? Also, do comparing one’s average numbers to any particular session indicate that session’s luck factor? Most importantly, I request that successful poker players share their Won $ WSF, Won $ WSF/Hands, Won $ at SD, and Fold at River percentages with me. This applies to full table games.
Stanley
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