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Vegas SuperJackpot Woolsey vs O'Hagan #2

Posted By: Chase
Date: Thursday, 15 April 2010, at 5:25 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas SuperJackpot Woolsey vs O'Hagan #2 (Paul Weaver)

Using Neil's New Numbers, I'm getting a take point of 29%. The value of White's gammons on a 4-cube has to be very high; I'll call it .8. I guess White wins 5% gammons, bringing the TP up to 29 + (5 x .8) = 33%. At a glance, I'm not sure who the favorite is, so Black can easily do that. White has 14 ways to make his 4pt, plus some other ways to improve, as well as residual wins from his 2pt holding game if he's hit. Black doesn't get much recube value out of a 4-cube. Adding it all up I think White's supposed to double and Black has an easy take.

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