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Woolsey vs O'Hagan #2 Rollout Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 15 April 2010, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: Vegas SuperJackpot Woolsey vs O'Hagan #2 (Paul Weaver)

I am posting the money rollout first (No Double/Beaver) and the match-score rollout second (Redouble/Take).

Kudos to both Kit and John for perfect cube action in the game.

At this score, Kit needs very little excuse to redouble. By redoubling, he almost kills the benefit to John of winning a gammon, while greatly increasing his own gain from winning a gammon.





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a--B-CCBA--B------bbdbbBb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 55.78% (G: 9.72% B: 0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.22% (G: 11.84% B: 0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.39% (G: 10.04% B: 0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.61% (G: 11.81% B: 0.51%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.093
Redouble:+0.219
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.322
Redouble/Take:-0.031 (-0.353)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.678)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Beaver
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.017 (+0.305...+0.339)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.045 (-0.076...+0.013)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Beaver Decision confidence: 91.6%
Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12
is Player 2

score: 10
pip: 87
15 point match
pip: 129
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=a--B-CCBA--B------bbdbbBb-:1:1:1:00:6:10:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 55.78% (G: 9.70% B: 0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 44.22% (G: 13.27% B: 1.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.56% (G: 10.71% B: 0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.44% (G: 14.78% B: 2.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.102
Redouble:+0.661
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.550 (-0.078)
Redouble/Take:+0.628
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.372)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.015 (+0.535...+0.565)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.020 (+0.608...+0.647)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 58 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.12, MET: eXtremeGammon

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