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Seemed pretty clear but I got this one wrong...
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 23 April 2010, at 6:47 p.m.
In Response To: Seemed pretty clear but I got this one wrong... (Timothy Chow)
If you consider 6/2, and think how will you play fives next roll, without considering them all, fives just seem bad. Ergo, 5/1, with its better looking distribution.
But actually, only 55, 53, and 65 blot. 51 picks and passes, a big improvement, since 51 is a blotting number (the only one) if you've played 6/2. After 51, 21 also picks and passes, another improvement.
Some rolls are worse after 5/1, and others after 6/2, but overall 6/2 leads more often to making a fourth point in the board (nicely picking and passing with 51 and 21). That seems to be the big factor outweighing the 3/36 extra immediate blotting numbers.

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