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Seemed pretty clear but I got this one wrong...

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 23 April 2010, at 6:47 p.m.

In Response To: Seemed pretty clear but I got this one wrong... (Timothy Chow)

If you consider 6/2, and think how will you play fives next roll, without considering them all, fives just seem bad. Ergo, 5/1, with its better looking distribution.

But actually, only 5-5, 5-3, and 6-5 blot. 5-1 picks and passes, a big improvement, since 5-1 is a blotting number (the only one) if you've played 6/2. After 5-1, 2-1 also picks and passes, another improvement.

Some rolls are worse after 5/1, and others after 6/2, but overall 6/2 leads more often to making a fourth point in the board (nicely picking and passing with 5-1 and 2-1). That seems to be the big factor outweighing the 3/36 extra immediate blotting numbers.

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