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Rollouts from OLM

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 6 June 2007, at 1:17 p.m.

Sorry to botch them altogether like this but since I didn't have time at the time to roll them out I'll post the interesting positions now, one after the other, in case anyone is still interested.

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 5: Readers to play 13

Stick	152
Readers	156
Position ID: 4LvBASSwt+ABMA Match ID: cInsAQAAAAAA

• Readers moves 24/23 6/3*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	24/21 8/7	+0.067
			0.514 0.140 0.005 - 0.486 0.130 0.005 +0.040 +0.065 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	24/23 6/3*	+0.046 ( -0.021)
			0.512 0.159 0.007 - 0.488 0.155 0.009 +0.026 +0.045 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/7 6/3*	+0.016 ( -0.051)
			0.500 0.160 0.006 - 0.500 0.137 0.008 +0.021 +0.016 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			819 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/23 8/5	-0.016 ( -0.083)
			0.496 0.144 0.004 - 0.504 0.148 0.005 -0.012 -0.016 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			818 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/10 8/7	-0.032 ( -0.100)
			0.488 0.158 0.006 - 0.512 0.148 0.006 -0.013 -0.032 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.013
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			818 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1063599795 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 7: Readers to play 14

Stick	147
Readers	174
Position ID: mLvBARSwW/AAVA Match ID: cInwAQAAAAAA

• Readers moves bar/24 8/4. At the time I thought this was a must hit. You simply can't allow me free reign and all the other plays suck so bad it to me was the only choice.

Alert: bad move ( -0.097)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	bar/24 6/2*	-0.721
			0.360 0.081 0.005 - 0.640 0.278 0.041 -0.525 -0.699 0.004 0.002 0.001 - 0.004 0.005 0.004 0.014 0.032
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1154 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	bar/24 13/9	-0.775 ( -0.053)
			0.360 0.077 0.004 - 0.640 0.298 0.036 -0.545 -0.751 0.004 0.002 0.000 - 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.012 0.029
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1153 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	3	R	bar/24 8/4	-0.818 ( -0.097)
			0.341 0.078 0.005 - 0.659 0.271 0.029 -0.548 -0.793 0.005 0.003 0.002 - 0.005 0.006 0.005 0.019 0.058
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	bar/20	-0.844 ( -0.123)
			0.348 0.072 0.003 - 0.652 0.298 0.028 -0.565 -0.819 0.006 0.003 0.001 - 0.006 0.007 0.005 0.020 0.049
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 9: Stick doubles to 2

Stick	147
Readers	169
Position ID: aDfwADSYu8EBFA Match ID: MBngAQAAAAAA

• Readers accepts

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.523	(Money: +0.514)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.787
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.213
3.	No double	+0.717	-0.071
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.653 0.267 0.025 - 0.347 0.079 0.004 +0.523 +0.717 Standard error 0.004 0.004 0.003 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.012 0.030 Player Readers owns 2-cube 0.658 0.270 0.029 - 0.342 0.078 0.005 +1.104 +0.787 Standard error 0.005 0.006 0.005 - 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.038 0.058
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1065044060 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 11: Readers to play 66

Stick	144
Readers	169
Position ID: 2LbBARRoN/AANA Match ID: UQn7AQAAAAAA

• Readers moves 13/1(2)

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.374)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/1(2)	-1.029
			0.152 0.029 0.001 - 0.848 0.375 0.033 -1.088 -1.029 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 0.007 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			853 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062109104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/7(4)	-1.031 ( -0.002)
			0.147 0.021 0.001 - 0.853 0.358 0.032 -1.088 -1.031 0.003 0.001 0.000 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.008 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			853 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1062109104 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 0 games) is: Stick 0, Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 39: Readers on roll, cube decision?

Stick	72
Readers	50
Position ID: 7d0GAATvm8EAAA Match ID: UQngAQAAAAAA

• Readers doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.381	(Money: +0.382)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.667
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.333
3.	No double	+0.548	-0.120
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Readers owns 2-cube 0.698 0.004 0.000 - 0.302 0.017 0.000 +0.381 +0.548 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.002 Player Stick owns 4-cube 0.700 0.003 0.000 - 0.300 0.017 0.000 +0.788 +0.667 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061797099 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 0, Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 12: Readers to play 31

Stick	147
Readers	147
Position ID: 2LYNACrYZuQFIA Match ID: cInlAQAAIAAA

• Readers moves 14/11 13/12

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/11 13/12	-0.049
			0.512 0.150 0.008 - 0.488 0.161 0.008 +0.002 -0.049 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061701256 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 11/10	-0.075 ( -0.026)
			0.505 0.144 0.006 - 0.495 0.157 0.008 -0.014 -0.075 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061701256 and quasi-random dice
			Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 0, Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 16: Stick doubles to 2

Stick	138
Readers	151
Position ID: 2GaZATDYtg0BKA Match ID: MBngAQAAIAAA

• Readers accepts. OTB I bet you'd get a fair amount of people to drop this. [in fact OTB I probably cube a roll sooner, even though the prime v. prime struggle wasn't enough in my favor to do so, I think I'd draw a fair amount of passes]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.459	(Money: +0.442)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.741
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.259
3.	No double	+0.676	-0.065
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.649 0.220 0.018 - 0.351 0.089 0.004 +0.459 +0.676 Standard error 0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.007 0.019 Player Readers owns 2-cube 0.647 0.219 0.018 - 0.353 0.087 0.006 +0.934 +0.741 Standard error 0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.018 0.027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
702 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061701256 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

The score (after 1 game) is: Stick 0, Readers 4 (match to 15 points)

Move number 34: Readers to play 45

Stick	160
Readers	139
Position ID: uG0DAFpstwECRg Match ID: UQn2AQAAIAAA

• Readers cannot move. Neil explained it far better than I could but again, in practice how many of your opponent's are going to look as deeply as Neil did? Worth giving it a whirl if your opponent isn't a strong player.

Alert: double decision marked doubtful

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.695	(Money: +0.747)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.778
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.222
3.	Double, take	+0.702	-0.075
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (25.2%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Readers owns 2-cube 0.708 0.359 0.051 - 0.292 0.070 0.008 +0.695 +0.778 Standard error 0.005 0.005 0.005 - 0.005 0.003 0.004 0.014 0.024 Player Stick owns 4-cube 0.706 0.369 0.094 - 0.294 0.073 0.012 +1.168 +0.702 Standard error 0.005 0.006 0.008 - 0.005 0.003 0.004 0.027 0.039
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
286 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1061797099 and quasi-random dice
Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]