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BGonline.org Forums
Which play is better based upon rollouts
Posted By: Seth
Date: Monday, 26 April 2010, at 1:24 p.m.
With an opening roll of 4-1 (Slot) 4-1$..opponent rolls 1-1 Which play is correct based upon these 2 rollouts?
# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/20* 0.151
Live cube rollout: 0.168
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.113 10.007, - live cube: 0.168 10.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 131855 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/7(2) 6/5(2) 0.118 (-0.033)
Live cube rollout: 0.139
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.084 10.007, - live cube: 0.139 10.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 146498 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
# Ply Move Equity • 1 R 8/7(2) 6/5(2) +0.1356 0.5350 0.1594 0.0091 - 0.4650 0.1445 0.0075 +0.0865 +0.1356 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 - 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0009 0.0022
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1034364735 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 24/20* +0.1320 ( -0.0035) 0.5257 0.1677 0.0132 - 0.4743 0.1230 0.0053 +0.1038 +0.1320 0.0004 0.0004 0.0002 - 0.0004 0.0003 0.0001 0.0012 0.0028
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 46656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1034364735 and quasi-random dice Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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