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BGonline.org Forums
Endgame play from Kit's OLM
Posted By: Casper van der Tak In Response To: Endgame play from Kit's OLM (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 26 April 2010, at 1:38 p.m.
I spent quite some time on this one. If we close Kit (black) out from here, we are good favorites, but if we can hit another one, we instantly become huge favorites. If we try and fail, generally speaking our position will have deteriorated a bit, because we may not be able to roll forward coveniently, and/or because Kit would have moved forward.
We would like to do keep things as they are, so that 1s forces Kit to hit us and we get an immediate shot. However, we have to move. While moving, we would like to keep our blot on the 24, not put Kit on the bar so that aces force a second blot, and we like to keep our checkers in good position for rolling forward. There is no play that does all this.
What are our moves? 9/4 6/2*; 9/5 6/1; and 24/19 9/5. There are others, but those plays do the same thing as the move above, but in a more ugly way. How do we rate these plays?
24/19 9/5 is the purest play, the best for rolling the prime forward without any mishap on the way. This is also the play that is the least likely to pick up a second blot. So this would become more attractive vis-a-vis the others if we are strong favorites to win regardless whether we pick up the second blot.
9/5 6/1 goes aggressively for the second blot. Aces (except 11) force an immediately hittable blot; and if that does not happen, we could aggressively continue (rolls permitting) with hitting loose on the deuce. This looks like the play we'd want to make if mishap on the way does not matter that much, because we'd have a good chance to lose anyway if we don't hit the second blot.
9/4 6/2* is the midling play. It keeps the position relatively pure, and keeps the checker on the 24 to have hits after future aces. Getting the second blot now requires a sequence (or we need to be really lucky and Kit rolls a 21), either Kit entering on the deuce and next rolling an ace, or Kit rolling an ace, we cover the 2 point, and Kit then rolling another ace. The plan from here would be to simply cover the blot, keep the checker on the 24, slot the ace, run from the 24 rather than covering. This aims for a second blot without too much risks.
If we go from say 3 checker on Kit's 2 point, adding more one at a time, I expect that first 9/5 6/1 will be best; then after adding a few checkers, 9/4 6/2* becomes best; and after adding some more, 24/19 9/5 becomes best. My gut tells me that we are now in the 9/5 6/2* is best range, but only just, with 9/4 6/1 probably close.
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