BGonline.org Forums

Very tough move ... RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 26 April 2010, at 4:27 p.m.

In Response To: Very tough move and next cube action (Carlo Melzi)

My PC is too slow to devote more cycles to this. But two plays seem to stand out: either 20/14 8/6 or 20/14 23/21.

The cube is on Blue's side because I believe White should double after any play, but Gnubg doubles only after some. Details at the bottom of the screen.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 0 (match to 3 points)
Blue to play 6-2

White	147
Blue	154
Position ID: 4HYbDBBsm2DAEg Match ID: UQl5AAAAAAAA

• Blue moves 8/6 20/14 -> MWC = 41.38%

• Blue moves 23/21 20/14 -> MWC = 41.25%

• Blue moves 23/21 8/2* -> MWC = 41.60%

• Blue moves 13/11 8/2* -> MWC = 40.42%

• Blue moves 20/12 -> MWC = 40.34%

• Blue moves 8/2 4/2 -> MWC = 38.04%

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	20/14 8/6	-0.3433
			0.3182 0.1132 0.0226 - 0.6818 0.1786 0.0419 -0.4531 -0.3433 0.0049 0.0056 0.0051 - 0.0049 0.0050 0.0062 0.0136 0.0145
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			388 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854182694 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	23/21 20/14	-0.3484 ( -0.0051)
			0.3123 0.0950 0.0231 - 0.6877 0.1553 0.0345 -0.4675 -0.3484 0.0044 0.0068 0.0064 - 0.0044 0.0049 0.0078 0.0128 0.0136
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			388 games
	3	R	23/21 8/2*	-0.3741 ( -0.0308)
			0.2999 0.0942 0.0082 - 0.7001 0.1501 0.0126 -0.4772 -0.3741 0.0054 0.0066 0.0043 - 0.0054 0.0057 0.0034 0.0148 0.0158
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			388 games
	4	R	13/11 8/2*	-0.3812 ( -0.0380)
			0.3093 0.0839 0.0122 - 0.6907 0.1755 0.0376 -0.4820 -0.3812 0.0074 0.0071 0.0043 - 0.0074 0.0058 0.0078 0.0229 0.0237
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			387 games
	5	R	20/12	-0.3847 ( -0.0415)
			0.3156 0.1039 0.0287 - 0.6844 0.2242 0.0616 -0.5178 -0.3847 0.0052 0.0070 0.0067 - 0.0052 0.0069 0.0081 0.0162 0.0164
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			387 games
	6	R	8/2* 4/2	-0.4761 ( -0.1328)
			0.2638 0.0727 0.0076 - 0.7362 0.1568 0.0141 -0.5680 -0.4761 0.0071 0.0061 0.0048 - 0.0071 0.0080 0.0041 0.0186 0.0208
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			185 games
	7	R	13/7 8/6	-0.5003 ( -0.1570)
			0.2634 0.0676 0.0062 - 0.7366 0.1784 0.0155 -0.6024 -0.5003 0.0061 0.0057 0.0038 - 0.0061 0.0055 0.0043 0.0155 0.0176
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			266 games

Annotation

Analysis 2-ply:

1. Cubeful 2-ply 13/11 8/2* Eq.: -0.1887

0.3665 0.1323 0.0037 - 0.6335 0.1484 0.0055

2. Cubeful 2-ply 23/21 20/14 Eq.: -0.2201 ( -0.0314)

0.3552 0.1064 0.0033 - 0.6448 0.1428 0.0051

3. Cubeful 2-ply 20/14 8/6 Eq.: -0.2309 ( -0.0422)

0.3557 0.1218 0.0040 - 0.6443 0.1603 0.0097

4. Cubeful 2-ply 23/21 8/2* Eq.: -0.2350 ( -0.0463)

0.3419 0.1099 0.0024 - 0.6581 0.1233 0.0028
--------------------
Cube action 2--ply after these plays:
20/14 8/6 D/T
23/21 20/14 No double
23/21 8/2* No double
13/11 8/2* No double
20/12 D/T
8/2* 4/2 D/T
13/7 8/6 D/T

Messages In This Thread

• Very tough move and next cube action
  Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 4:43 p.m.
  • Very tough move and next cube action
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 5:23 p.m.
  • Very tough move and next cube action
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 6:13 p.m.
  • Very tough move and next cube action
    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 8:04 p.m.
    • Very tough move and next cube action
      christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 9:37 p.m.
  • Very tough move and next cube action
    johnk -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
  • Very tough move and next cube action
    Chase -- Thursday, 22 April 2010, at 11:04 p.m.
  • Very tough move ... RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 4:27 p.m.
    • XG RO
      Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 4:43 p.m.
      • XG RO 4-Ply
        Michael Depreli -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 5:43 p.m.
        • XG RO 4-Ply
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 26 April 2010, at 9:17 p.m.
          • XG RO 4-Ply
            Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 27 April 2010, at 10:37 a.m.