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Six-primed at DMP

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 3 May 2010, at 11:30 p.m.

In Response To: Six-primed at DMP (Timothy Chow)

Chase hit the nail on the head. OTB I played 13/6. This is a fine play for money, but it is a whopper at DMP, where 13/10 8/4* tops the rollout. For money, 13/10 8/4* is a whopper; it just loses too many gammons.

Basically, Blue has two ways to try to get White to crack. The first is to counterprime White's back checker. The second is what I call zugzwang; force White to play his dice and rush forward to collapse. It can be a tough call sometimes to decide which of these plans is better. For money, the decision is often a little easier because you generally don't want to hit loose if that means you might get hit back and gammoned. So often it's right to just build a prime as safely as possible, and if White hops out then switch to zugzwang. At DMP, hitting loose is more attractive because it is often a great way to counterprime, and if you're hit back then you just switch to zugzwang, without worrying about the gammon losses.

Below is the DMP rollout followed by the money rollout. After that, for good measure, I give the positions from the previous two turns of this game, which I also misplayed due to my failure to break my money-play habits of thinking.

gnubg	84
tchow	133
Position ID: trsNAASazQ0BMA Match ID: cAkuAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/10 8/4*	-0.375
			0.313 0.031 0.002 - 0.687 0.455 0.239 -0.375 -0.375 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.006 0.007 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854627068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	9/6 8/4*	-0.402 ( -0.027)
			0.299 0.029 0.001 - 0.701 0.468 0.241 -0.402 -0.402 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854627068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/5 8/4*	-0.438 ( -0.063)
			0.281 0.030 0.002 - 0.719 0.479 0.271 -0.438 -0.438 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854627068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	8/4*/1	-0.455 ( -0.081)
			0.272 0.027 0.001 - 0.728 0.460 0.199 -0.455 -0.455 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.007 0.006 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854627068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/6	-0.483 ( -0.109)
			0.258 0.030 0.001 - 0.742 0.352 0.069 -0.483 -0.483 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.008 0.004 0.003 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854627068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	13/9 8/5	-0.484 ( -0.110)
			0.258 0.027 0.001 - 0.742 0.351 0.062 -0.484 -0.484 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.007 0.003 0.003 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854627068 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Money-game rollout:

gnubg	84
tchow	133
Position ID: trsNAASazQ0BMA Match ID: UQkOABAACAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/9 8/5	-0.578
			0.243 0.019 0.000 - 0.757 0.171 0.010 -0.677 -0.578 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 855082275 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/6	-0.581 ( -0.003)
			0.240 0.019 0.001 - 0.760 0.170 0.011 -0.680 -0.581 0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.003 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 855082275 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10 8/4*	-0.670 ( -0.092)
			0.289 0.030 0.001 - 0.711 0.357 0.055 -0.802 -0.670 0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 855082275 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

In the position below I played 13/2. Although this is not as bad a mistake for money as it is at DMP, it turns out that either of the bold plays 13/8 13/7 or 13/7 9/4* is slightly better than 13/2 even for money. At DMP, though, hitting is the only move.

gnubg	87
tchow	144
Position ID: tt0OAATM5oYBMA Match ID: cAk3AAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/7 9/4*	-0.289
			0.356 0.038 0.001 - 0.644 0.417 0.220 -0.289 -0.289 0.003 0.002 0.000 - 0.003 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854737297 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/8 13/7	-0.393 ( -0.104)
			0.304 0.038 0.002 - 0.696 0.380 0.111 -0.393 -0.393 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854737297 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/7 8/3	-0.398 ( -0.109)
			0.301 0.042 0.002 - 0.699 0.391 0.129 -0.398 -0.398 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.004
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854737297 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/2	-0.427 ( -0.138)
			0.287 0.035 0.001 - 0.713 0.386 0.128 -0.427 -0.427 0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854737297 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Below I played 8/3 6/3, which is the best play for money, but at DMP it is better to boldly slot the back of the prime.

gnubg	92
tchow	152
Position ID: tu2GAASw84YBMA Match ID: cIkuAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/10 8/3	-0.339
			0.331 0.034 0.001 - 0.669 0.424 0.202 -0.339 -0.339 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854872798 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 9/4*	-0.356 ( -0.017)
			0.322 0.031 0.001 - 0.678 0.471 0.273 -0.356 -0.356 0.003 0.002 0.000 - 0.003 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854872798 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/3 6/3	-0.367 ( -0.028)
			0.317 0.037 0.002 - 0.683 0.380 0.133 -0.367 -0.367 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854872798 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	9/4* 8/5	-0.382 ( -0.044)
			0.309 0.029 0.001 - 0.691 0.459 0.244 -0.382 -0.382 0.003 0.002 0.000 - 0.003 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854872798 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/5	-0.405 ( -0.066)
			0.297 0.032 0.001 - 0.703 0.401 0.138 -0.405 -0.405 0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854872798 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	8/5 8/3	-0.413 ( -0.074)
			0.294 0.031 0.001 - 0.706 0.396 0.144 -0.413 -0.413 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854872798 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Six-primed at DMP
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 2 May 2010, at 10:57 p.m.
  • Six-primed at DMP
    Chase -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 12:08 a.m.
    • Six-primed at DMP
      Martin -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 6:53 a.m.
      • Six-primed at DMP
        Chase -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 7:18 a.m.
  • Six-primed at DMP
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 7:54 a.m.
  • Six-primed at DMP
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 May 2010, at 11:30 p.m.
    • Above message is a rollout (forgot to change subject line) *NM*
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 4 May 2010, at 1:46 a.m.