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Rollout: real backgammon 41 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 12:13 a.m.

In Response To: real backgammon 41 to play (christian munk-christensen)

As I recall, Christian usually doesn't post rollouts so I took the liberty of doing so myself. 6/1* narrowly edges out 14/10 8/7 but it's not quite statsig so maybe someone can do a longer XG rollout. I have also rolled out a variant position where 14/10 8/7 comes out ahead of 6/1*. I'm not sure why the modification I made makes a difference.

I've rolled out only three plays in each case but nothing else looked close.

---

Original position:

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, tchow 0 (match to 5 points)

gnubg	126
tchow	120
Position ID: Km+DAyDYnoMNAA Match ID: QQmmABAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	6/1*	+0.571
			0.701 0.248 0.006 - 0.299 0.084 0.006 +0.664 +0.571 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854985055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	14/10 8/7	+0.562 ( -0.009)
			0.725 0.194 0.007 - 0.275 0.073 0.005 +0.645 +0.562 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854985055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/9 8/7	+0.523 ( -0.048)
			0.720 0.177 0.005 - 0.280 0.076 0.005 +0.610 +0.523 0.002 0.003 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854985055 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

Variant position:

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 1, tchow 0 (match to 5 points)

gnubg	126
tchow	120
Position ID: Kp+DAyDYnoMNAA Match ID: QQmmABAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	14/10 8/7	+0.639
			0.757 0.183 0.006 - 0.243 0.064 0.006 +0.712 +0.639 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.005
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 855104761 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	6/1*	+0.614 ( -0.025)
			0.713 0.249 0.004 - 0.287 0.079 0.005 +0.701 +0.614 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 855104761 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/9 8/7	+0.600 ( -0.039)
			0.735 0.205 0.006 - 0.265 0.080 0.004 +0.682 +0.600 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.005 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 855104761 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• real backgammon 41 to play
  christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 7:01 p.m.
  • real backgammon 41 to play
    johnk -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 7:09 p.m.
    • real backgammon 41 to play
      Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 7:14 p.m.
  • real backgammon 41 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 7:29 p.m.
  • real backgammon 41 to play
    Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 9:08 p.m.
    • real backgammon 41 to play
      Steve Mellen -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 9:11 p.m.
    • real backgammon 41 to play
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 9:12 p.m.
    • real backgammon 41 to play
      Stick -- Sunday, 2 May 2010, at 8:40 a.m.
      • real backgammon 41 to play
        Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 2 May 2010, at 9:06 a.m.
      • real backgammon 41 to play
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 2 May 2010, at 7:30 p.m.
  • real backgammon 41 to play
    Chase -- Saturday, 1 May 2010, at 9:20 p.m.
  • Rollout: real backgammon 41 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 12:13 a.m.
    • Rollout: real backgammon 41 to play
      Stick -- Wednesday, 5 May 2010, at 12:22 a.m.
    • Rollout: real backgammon 41 to play
      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Thursday, 6 May 2010, at 8:17 a.m.