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BGonline.org Forums
Cube Decision 1
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Cube Decision 1 (Max Urban)
Date: Friday, 7 May 2010, at 7:02 p.m.
Per Woolsey's rule, does White have a take? I don't know a 21-pt MET so OTB, I'd analyze this as if Max was leading 5-0 to 15 (or 10a/15a if you prefer), and hope that leads me to the right conclusion. The trailer's basic 4-cube takepoint ATS is around 23%, the 4-cube gammon prices are around 35%/65% for the leader/trailer, and the leader's basic 8-cube takepoint is around 32.5% (I'll use this as his cubeless takepoint as well since the trailer can take and rewhip with 2% chances). What kind of g chances do both sides have here? Blue won't hit loose very often since White has that good board and Blue's g's are worth less than normal so his g chances are just fair. I think they're clearly better than in the opening position though so I'll go with 22%. I'll guess around 6% g's for White since some of the Blue's non-hitters leave a blot in direct range of one of White's checkers and some awkward sequences might force a direct in the future as Blue tries to clear his outfield points. These g chances raise the takepoint to almost 27%. How about recube vig? Assuming 70% efficiency, this should be worth about 70% of 27%*32.5%, which is about 6%. So White needs around 21% cubeless chances to take.
Can he win this often? I think so. He can win from an acepoint game, a 21-point holding game, or from an immediate hit on his next shake. He definitely won't have a take if he's pinned back into an acepoint game though so it looks like a good recube for Blue. He loses his market if he points on the 4 or if he hits and creates a 3rd builder for the 4 and White fails to anchor on the 21-point.
This looks like the kind of recube you're supposed to give with a big lead in the match. You have a decent chance of winning 8 and almost wrapping up the match and not much chance of facing a gammonish 8-cube.
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