If you'll refer to this thread you can see some old analysis and bot data. You can also see my offer which was made in all seriousness, v. human or bot as long as someone has the money (offer still good, no expiration date)
After reading the analysis and roll out information that was provided in the thread I thought to myself ... no fucking way. I had wanted to roll this out myself but have a lot of things keeping my processor busy at the moment so put it on the back burner til I had time to toss it on for a few hours tonight. Since I'm going to be gone the rest of the weekend I'm posting it now.
Yes, there's an absolute ton of variance left but assume the worst case scenario, that all the variance goes in the wrong direction, what are you left with? The biggest take this side of the Rockies.
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| XGID=-bbcEED---A-a--a-----b-bb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 | ||||||||||||||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||||||||||||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 56.22% (G: 32.55% B: 11.49%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 43.78% (G: 0.15% B: 0.01%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 54.56% (G: 32.24% B: 11.72%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 45.44% (G: 0.26% B: 0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.563 |
| Redouble: | +1.056 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.671 |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.586 (-0.085) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.329) |
| Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 134 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 14285183 Moves: 5 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.104 (+0.568...+0.775) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.136 (+0.450...+0.722) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 83.6% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 7 hours 26 minutes | |