SM RO - As bad as it gets

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SM RO - As bad as it gets

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 9:39 p.m.

In Response To: SM RO (Stick)

Ok ok, the worst it could get is that you never even got to one of these positions .....
On the other hand, it seems to me likely that Blue will never/almost never get to one of these awful bad positions from the one Matt actually had in Cyprus.
White 45

Blue 45
Position ID: /34AAEDftg0AAA Match ID: UYkWAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0028)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.9104

Cubeful equities:

1. No double +1.0028

2. Double, take +1.8087 +0.8059

3. Double, pass +1.0000 -0.0028

Proper cube action: Too good to redouble, pass (0.3%)

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.9477 0.0149 0.0001 - 0.0523 0.0000 0.0000 +0.9104 +1.0028

Standard error 0.0007 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0007 0.0000 0.0000 0.0014 0.0008

Player White owns 4-cube 0.9510 0.0139 0.0003 - 0.0490 0.0000 0.0000 +1.8322 +1.8087

Standard error 0.0008 0.0014 0.0001 - 0.0008 0.0000 0.0000 0.0041 0.0050

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

172 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851464385 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 20 more moves within equity 0.44

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White 45

Blue 50
Position ID: /34AAEBv2w4AAA Match ID: UYkWAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity +0.8385

Cubeful equities:

1. Double, pass +1.0000

2. Double, take +1.6459 +0.6459

3. No double +0.9459 -0.0541

Proper cube action: Redouble, pass

Rollout details

Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful

Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.9077 0.0228 0.0001 - 0.0923 0.0000 0.0000 +0.8385 +0.9459

Standard error 0.0005 0.0004 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0011 0.0010

Player White owns 4-cube 0.9133 0.0224 0.0002 - 0.0867 0.0000 0.0000 +1.6985 +1.6459

Standard error 0.0005 0.0005 0.0001 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0021 0.0030

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

792 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851464385 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 20 more moves within equity 0.44

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

White	45

Blue	45
Position ID: `/34AAEDftg0AAA` Match ID: `UYkWAAAAAAAA`

White	45

Blue	50
Position ID: `/34AAEBv2w4AAA` Match ID: `UYkWAAAAAAAA`

Messages In This Thread

Cube action from Cyprus
Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 2:29 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  Bill Riles -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 3:06 a.m.
  - Cube action from Cyprus
    Bill Riles -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 3:30 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  mikeg -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 3:09 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  Bob Koca -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 3:40 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 4:07 a.m.
  - Cube action from Cyprus
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 4:18 a.m.
  - Cube action from Cyprus
    Stick -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 4:43 a.m.
    - Cube action from Cyprus
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 4:46 a.m.
      - Cube action from Cyprus
        Stick -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 4:50 a.m.
        
        Cube action from Cyprus
        Rich Munitz -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 4:06 p.m.
        
        Cube action from Cyprus
        Stick -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 5:16 p.m.
        
        Cube action from Cyprus
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 5:48 p.m.
        
        Cube action from Cyprus
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 6:15 p.m.
        
        Cube action from Cyprus
        Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:50 p.m.
        
        Cube action from Cyprus
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 8:08 p.m.
- SM RO
  Stick -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:22 a.m.
  - SM RO
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 9:29 p.m.
  - SM RO - As bad as it gets
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 9:39 p.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:23 a.m.
  - Cube action from Cyprus
    Leonardo Jerkovic -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:29 a.m.
    - Cube action from Cyprus
      Stick -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:32 a.m.
    - Cube action from Cyprus
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:35 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  christian munk-christensen -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 7:55 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 11:45 a.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  Keene -- Sunday, 9 May 2010, at 10:55 p.m.
- Cube action from Cyprus
  Christian Plenz -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 1:48 a.m.
- Some Actual Rollouts
  Stick -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 7:49 a.m.
- Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 2:16 p.m.
  - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
    Rich Munitz -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 2:34 p.m.
    - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 3:05 p.m.
      - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 8:36 a.m.
        
        Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 8:15 p.m.
  - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
    christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 2:49 p.m.
    - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 3:26 p.m.
  - Too good?
    Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 2:50 p.m.
  - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
    Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 7:06 p.m.
    - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 8:30 p.m.
      - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Stick -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 8:54 p.m.
        
        Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 9:47 p.m.
        
        Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 12:30 a.m.
        
        Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Keene -- Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 4:56 a.m.
        
        Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 2:47 p.m.
  - Results, ROs, analysis, thoughts, etc.
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 10 May 2010, at 7:38 p.m.
    - Agreed *NM*
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 2:52 p.m.

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