Let's start with the obvious:
1) Crawford 8-away is 7% on R/K.
2) Using 7% as our baseline, the position is, as Neil indicates, a pretty sizable pass. I'm not TG here as I rarely win a G and can regain my market either on this roll or the next one.
The score (after 0 games) is: Eli Roymi 5, MCG 10 (match to 13 points)
Move number 19: MCG on roll, cube decision?
| Eli Roymi | 42 |
|---|---|
| |
| MCG | 104 |
Position ID: /34AAAjYdrsAAA Match ID: UQmgAVAAUAAA | |
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 93.11% (G: 3.79% B: 0.12%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 6.89% (G: 0.20% B: 0.00%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 94.14% (G: 4.40% B: 0.10%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 5.86% (G: 0.41% B: 0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.883 |
| Redouble: | +1.364 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.997 (-0.003) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.082 (+0.082) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop | |
| Rollout details | |
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10368 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ｱ 0.002 (+0.995...+0.999) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ｱ 0.005 (+1.077...+1.087) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.9% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
3) I had been playing on and Eli just cleaned up his last blot which leaves me with pretty slim hopes for a G. I was damn sure that this was a technical pass by at least 1%. If there was any doubt in my mind at all (for example, as to whether Crawford -8 was closer to 6% or 7%) my OTB decision could have been different.
4) Most obviously, if I am playing some random fish I don't redouble. Makes almost no difference what the numbers are.
5) I am stronger than Eli.
6) Eli is not some random fish. Probably he plays somewhere between 4.0 and 5.0 on average.
Can I be 100 ELO stronger than Eli? That doesn't seem quite right, on average. Maybe I am 50 ELO stronger than him? Not sure, but probably sounds about right.
Now that we have the obvious out of the way, let's go on to the not-so-obvious.
1) Is it a pass if I am 50 ELO stronger than Eli? That would correspond to something like a 1.5-2.0 ER difference. On JT 50 he has 5.6%, giving him a close take.
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.8843 | (Money: +0.9027) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.9830 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0170 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | No double | +0.9701 | -0.0129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, take | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20735 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851845780 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
However...the Jacobs/Trice (unadjusted) table uses 6.2% as the 'normal' Cr -8 MWC. Since it's really 7% it's off by a huge margin in this case. Can we just subtract 0.6% from the normal MWC to get the 50 ELO-adjusted MWC? In that case it would be 6.4% or still a sizable pass.
2) Is it a pass if I am 100 ELO stronger than Eli? Well, the JT 100 table has it at 5.1%--no cube for me.
Alert: wrong double ( -0.0382)! [doubtful]
| Cube decision | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout cubeless equity | +0.8864 | (Money: +0.9032) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cubeful equities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1. | No double | +0.9608 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0392 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3. | Double, take | +0.9225 | -0.0382 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (49.3%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rollout details | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5869 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851845780 and quasi-random dice | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
However, if we can apply the same measure as in the above of subtracting 1.1% from R/K then in the above it would be about 5.9%...i.e., a borderline pass.
3) It feels like I am totally crushing Eli on the ER in this match. He's completely outrolled, outplayed and pretty flustered.
4) I have a significant advantage on the clock. Of course Eli still has something like 6-8 minutes left which is enough to win from Cr -8 I suppose.
5) The winner of this match must be a huge favorite against the rest of the field. Can this possibly make a difference? I don't think so, but not sure.
In the abstract, it looks like Eli has a pass, but there are a few other factors at work here. I didn't really consider all of them as much as I should have. It pays to be really vigilant in these situations. I really don't believe Eli could have played at a 4.0 in the remaining games of this match if I just waited until I was practically gin.
What was I thinking when I sent this cube? I was hoping that he would pass. Of course I wasn't too unhappy when he took because what more can I ask for than being 94-95% to win the match, but I still would have rather he passed. That should have been a red flag to hold off on the cube. And of course I agree with Stick about the desperation take.
I hit loose off the edge of my prime, he hit back. I rolled badly for 5 rolls in a row as I couldn't hit loose again and finally had to break my 8 and bar point to point on him. He rolled 26 from the bar. I missed the return 8 number shot from the bar, missed a 15 number shot on the next roll, and Eli won.
Now the armchair quarterbacks start in with what a huge blunder my recube is...but of course no one is willing bet against me that it was a pass. Falafel agreed with my redouble. As a point of interest, it seems to me like on average the weaker the player is, the more likely he is to think the redouble is bad and by a bigger amount, though there are many exceptions both ways of course.
I felt like I cost myself a really good shot to win this tournament. Actually, I felt like I cost myself the tournament altogether, although I knew logically that wasn't really true. I could just as easily have lost from -3 -6 or -1 -8 or lost in the next round. But I felt completely disgusted with myself and felt like vomiting. As I thought about it more, on average, my recube can't be too bad, because Eli is just supposed to pass, and even if turns out to be a marginal take recubing can't be bad, I just give myself 94.2% in the match. Sometimes you just have to put the match on the line. But if I had been more alert to the actual situation OTB I don't think I would have redoubled here.
Still feels like it was my worst mistake of this tournament even if it isn't true. Hard to shake the sickness after a loss like this.
It pays to be vigilant...