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Exposing to a ton of shots in the opening?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 11 May 2010, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: Exposing to a ton of shots in the opening? (MikeL)

In case you missed it, you may want to look at my firing squad quiz which contains a bunch of examples of similar positions. In particular check out Position 8.

Here's what I see when I look at your position. The first thing I note is that Black has an advanced anchor while you are stuck back on your ace point. The second thing I note is that Black has a bunch of builders ready to build a prime to lock you in. These two features of your position scream out to me, "Split!!" Thus the very first play to consider is 24/18. If somehow you assess 24/18 as being too dangerous, then you might very reluctantly scale back to the minor split 13/8 24/23. However, the presumption should be that 24/18 is the primary candidate because it addresses the most urgent needs of the position. Hanging back on the ace point when your opponent has an advanced anchor and is itching to build a prime is like sitting in a pot of water while it comes to a boil; you might not sense the immediate danger but you'll slowly but surely be cooked to the bone.

So is 24/18 too dangerous? It is likely to get you hit, but so what? Black has no board. You're fairly likely to get a return shot. If you don't, at least your back checkers will still be split (one on the bar and one on the 24 point), increasing your chances of making that all-important advanced anchor. Also, by sticking your checker in Black's face, you make it more difficult for him to build a prime in peace. He would love to make his five point if he rolls a 3-1. If you play 24/18, is he going to calmly make his five point when he rolls 3-1? Not likely. Many of his hitting rolls after 24/18 play well anyway after 13/8 24/23 so you are not risking much.

Anyway, I think the main point is to realize that you're already in hot water here and you need to take action before it's too late.

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