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Smallest Possible Chance to Win? - Mochy

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 18 May 2010, at 12:37 a.m.

Mochy sent me an email asking to post this for him.

Which has the smallest winning chances?

Koizumi Masahiro created the position below (1st position) a few years ago and claimed that White has the minimum winning chances of any possible backgammon position. While I found the bottom position in Jake’s fine article “Odds Bodkins!” in which he said it is invented by legendary Phil Marmorstein. Assume the positions below are dmp positions, gammons and backgammons are to be ignored and there will be no recubes.

My questions are:

  1. Which really gives the smallest winning chance?
  2. How much of a chance is that?
  3. Are they really less than any contact positions? Are they really the least?

*In top position, White (bottom player) is on roll but in bottom position Black (top player) is on roll.

Koizumi’s position:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 315
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---------------------On-a-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Jake's position:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 46
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 300
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=--------------------Oan---:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

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