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BGonline.org Forums
Variant positions: Run or prime?
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Variant positions: Run or prime? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Thursday, 20 May 2010, at 5:39 p.m.
Blue's choices in the three positions involve leaving various numbers of shots at (a) the straggler and (b) the other blot, if any. As a first step we can note that that leaving immediate shots at (b) are especially bad, and weigh the value of leaving X shots at (b) against leaving Y shots at (a), which are also bad, of course, but not terribly so. And so we can do a fairly simple guesstimation of Blue's equity after White successfully rolls X or Y, and along with that, assume, probably, that when White rolls Z (a number that doesn't hit anything) that it doesn't make a critical difference to what Blue plays.
But a difference in the three positions after Blue's play(s) is the ease with which White can advance his back checkers, hitting a blot or not. If White hits the straggler, he still needs to do two things: close out (or double out) Blue, and advance and escape his two stragglers. Point being that, assuming White immediately rolls a Y hitting the straggler, positions which leave Blue with more ways to escape the back checkers, hitting or not, increase the damage done to White with those Y hits. We can then adjust our initial weighing of the X and Y hits accordingly.
One of the resulting positions gives White 4/36 hitting numbers from the rear, 4-3 and 1-6, while another gives only 4-3. If White has 4 ways instead of 2 to escape hitting, we have more of a reason to not give White those shots. And, blot aside, if Blue has the 8 point, White must roll 3-5 or 3-6 to escape a back checker (of course 3-3 advances both, which combined with a hit on the 15 point is awful for Blue). But if Blue has the 9 but not the 8 point, White can escape a checker with 3-4 or 3-6 and also 1-6, so if Blue has the choice, making the 9 point is much less valuable than making the 8 point.
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