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Error Rates and Edges
Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 7:51 p.m.
In Response To: Error Rates and Edges (Bill Calton)
I'm no math wizard, just a regular wizard, so I will not attempt the math parts of this question. I can point you however to a tool in Snowie called the ELO formula which can be found under View >> ELO Formula if you have Snowie. This allows you to put the ELO difference in and the match length and Snowie will spit out what percentage favorite/dog you are. 1 point of error rate is worth 36 elo points so if you on average play a 5 and your opponent on average plays an 8, the elo difference would be 36x3 or 108. Stick that into Snowie for example in an 11 point match and it will tell you it thinks you're just above 60% as the favorite in that match.
How accurate is this? I don't know really. I have never done any testing of it but it's certainly better than nothing if nothing is all you have to go on so far. Someone else may also be able to shed more light on it.
As far as I know the other bots don't have this option so if you don't have Snowie you're SoL until some math geek replies.
Stick

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