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Error Rates and Edges
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 24 May 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
In Response To: Error Rates and Edges (Matt CohnGeier)
There is no way to translate ER to MWC statistics.
Why do you say that?
Supposedly ER advantage translates to Elo advantage. 36 or so Elo points per ER point difference, I'm reading. And Elo advantage does translate to MWC, not perfectly, but pretty well. If two equally rated players play, say, a few hundred 5point matches, and at the end of that session one is rated 100 points higher, you know that he won 56.4% of the matches. The obvious converse is that if those two players' true Elo ratings differ by 100, the one is a 56.4% favorite in 5point matches, and an X% favorite at other match lengths.
There isn't a perfect correspondence, of course, that fits all pairings. One player may be better at DMP, or at 5pointers, or 25pointers, so the Elo formula doesn't apply perfectly. And ER covers a multitude of errors, and don't necessarily predict how a particular player will do against another.

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