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Gammon rate at GG

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 25 May 2010, at 8:27 p.m.

A little while ago I asked about the gammon rate at GG/GS but got no responses.

Here are some simple observations. Let g denote the fraction of gammon wins by the GG player and let s be the fraction of single wins (in the first game). From the R-K MET we have

g + s/2 = 0.323

One equation isn't enough to solve for two unknowns. We can make a ballpark estimate by assuming that the GG player wins the first game about half the time. Then

g + s = 0.5

from which it follows that

g = 0.146
s = 0.354

In other words, in the first game of a GG/GS match, 29.2% of the GG player's wins are gammons.

Rather than guessing, though, I'd like to know what the rollout data say. Does the GG player win more or less than half of the first games of a GG/GS match? Note that the GS player can hold the GG player to a 50% win rate by adopting a DMP checker-play strategy, but this doesn't automatically imply that the GS player wins at least 50% of the first games.

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