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Rollouts from the previous game of the OLM

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 10 June 2010, at 11:08 p.m.

Below are rollouts of three positions from the previous game of the OLM for which nobody posted rollouts and which I thought were interesting. In all three cases the play that BGOR voted for came out on top. However, in the first position (May 9), the top 4 plays are TCTC after 2592 games. Two of those 4 plays did not receive any BGOR votes. Although the equity differences in question are small, perhaps someone will be intrigued enough to do a longer rollout to sort out the pecking order.

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May 9, 2010

The score (after 0 games) is: XGR+ 1, BGOnline Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

XGR+	100
BGOnline Readers	105
Position ID: 6rYyBgBseyUwAA Match ID: cAnuARAAAAAA

• BGOnline Readers moves 8/5 6/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	8/5 6/2	-0.151
			0.449 0.003 0.000 - 0.551 0.003 0.000 -0.102 -0.151 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892102107 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	7/4 6/2	-0.153 ( -0.002)
			0.448 0.003 0.000 - 0.552 0.003 0.000 -0.105 -0.153 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892102107 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	10/7 6/2	-0.154 ( -0.002)
			0.448 0.003 0.000 - 0.552 0.003 0.000 -0.105 -0.154 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892102107 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	10/7 8/4	-0.154 ( -0.003)
			0.447 0.004 0.000 - 0.553 0.004 0.000 -0.107 -0.154 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892102107 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	10/6 8/5	-0.165 ( -0.013)
			0.444 0.005 0.000 - 0.556 0.005 0.000 -0.112 -0.165 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892102107 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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May 15, 2010

The score (after 0 games) is: XGR+ 1, BGOnline Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

XGR+	69
BGOnline Readers	77
Position ID: 2z0DBgDbbQMwAA Match ID: cIn4ARAAAAAA

• BGOnline Readers moves 16/9

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	16/9	-0.389
			0.368 0.010 0.000 - 0.632 0.007 0.000 -0.260 -0.389 0.000 0.001 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891965368 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	16/10 3/2	-0.411 ( -0.022)
			0.361 0.009 0.000 - 0.639 0.008 0.000 -0.278 -0.411 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891965368 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	16/10 6/5	-0.468 ( -0.079)
			0.340 0.006 0.000 - 0.660 0.013 0.000 -0.328 -0.468 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891965368 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	16/15 16/10	-0.470 ( -0.081)
			0.342 0.005 0.000 - 0.658 0.007 0.000 -0.318 -0.470 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891965368 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

---

May 18, 2010

The score (after 0 games) is: XGR+ 1, BGOnline Readers 0 (match to 15 points)

XGR+	13
BGOnline Readers	16
Position ID: ZQEAwDoAAAAAAA Match ID: MAHgARAAAAAA

• XGR+ doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.551	(Money: +0.551)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.000
2.	Double, take	+1.054	+0.054
3.	No double	+0.728	-0.272
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.775 0.000 0.000 - 0.225 0.000 0.000 +0.551 +0.728 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Player BGOnline Readers owns 2-cube 0.775 0.000 0.000 - 0.225 0.000 0.000 +1.128 +1.054 Standard error 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 892023681 and quasi-random dice
Play: 4-ply cubeful prune
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
keep the first 0 2-ply moves and up to 4 more moves within equity 0.08
Skip pruning for 3-ply moves.
Cube: 4-ply cubeful prune